Ageing and youthful populations

Ageing populations: Japan

• In September 2024, 36.25 million people in Japan were aged 65 or over, a record 29.3% of the population (internal affairs ministry, reported by The Japan Times).
• 9.14 million people aged 65 and over were working in 2023, and the employment rate of over-65s was 25.2%.

Challenges: rising costs of health and social care and pensions; worker shortages; a rising dependency ratio; fewer taxpayers per pensioner; rural depopulation.

Responses: raising the retirement age, encouraging older people to work, automation and robots, immigration of care workers, policies to raise the birth rate.

Youthful populations: India and Nigeria

A youthful population has a large share of children and young adults (wide-based pyramid).

• Demographic dividend: as fertility falls, the working-age share rises relative to dependants, which can boost growth if there are jobs, education and health care.
• Pressures: high demand for schools, housing, health care (especially maternal and child health), and for jobs as young people reach working age; risk of unemployment and out-migration.

Nigeria is projected to add 189 million urban dwellers between 2018 and 2050 (UN World Urbanization Prospects 2018).

The dependency ratio

Dependency ratio = (people aged 0 to 14 + people aged 65 and over) / people aged 15 to 64 x 100.

A high ratio means each worker supports more dependants. Youthful countries have high child dependency; ageing countries have high old-age dependency. The ratio is a simplification: many over-65s work and many 15 to 24 year olds are in education.

Worked example

Practice data (invented): a country has 18% aged 0 to 14, 70% aged 15 to 64 and 12% aged 65 and over. Calculate its dependency ratio.

1. Dependants = 18 + 12 = 30
2. 30 / 70 x 100

Answer: 42.9 dependants per 100 people of working age.

Check yourself

1. Practice data (invented): 40% aged 0 to 14, 55% aged 15 to 64 and 5% aged 65 and over. Calculate the dependency ratio to 1 decimal place.
   Show answer

   81.8. 45 / 55 x 100 = 81.8.

2. In 2024, 36.25 million people in Japan were aged 65+, which was 29.3% of the population. Calculate Japan's total population in millions, to 1 decimal place.
   Show answer

   123.7 million. 36.25 / 0.293 = 123.7 million.

3. Practice data (invented): Japan-style structure of 12% aged 0 to 14, 59% aged 15 to 64 and 29% aged 65 and over. Calculate the old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15 to 64 x 100) to 1 decimal place.
   Show answer

   49.2. 29 / 59 x 100 = 49.2.

4. A demographic dividend occurs when
   • falling fertility raises the share of working-age people, boosting economic growth
   • the population ages rapidly
   • the death rate rises
   • migrants leave the country
   Show answer

   falling fertility raises the share of working-age people, boosting economic growth. More workers relative to dependants can raise output per person.

5. Which policy responds to worker shortages in an ageing country?
   • Reducing pensions to zero
   • Building more primary schools
   • Raising the retirement age and encouraging older people to work
   • Banning immigration
   Show answer

   Raising the retirement age and encouraging older people to work. It keeps more people in the labour force.

6. Explain why a youthful population puts pressure on services.
   Show answer

   There are many children, so large numbers of school places, health care and, later, housing and jobs are needed, which governments may struggle to fund.. Large numbers of young people need schools, health care, housing and jobs.

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Sources

• Pearson Edexcel International Advanced Subsidiary/Advanced Level in Geography specification (Issue 3, September 2025)
• The Japan Times: Japan's elderly population grows (15 September 2024, internal affairs ministry data)
• UN DESA: World Urbanization Prospects 2018 press release (16 May 2018)

Last updated 8 November 2026. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.